Simulation de la rétraction urbaine. Étude de la ville de Katsuura, Japon
City shrinkage simulation. A case study of Katsuura City, Japan
Over the last fifty years, worldwide city shrinkage has become an increasingly common phenomenon. How to deal with the shrinking issue, and any problems caused by its chain effects, still remains a challenge for researchers from various disciplines. In this paper, Japan’s shrinking phenomena is analyzed based on a case study of Katsuura City. Changes in land use, population, industry, and residential preferences are detected through an analysis of census data, land-use maps and questionnaire surveys. On the basis of this analysis, a simulation model consisting of a land-use change model generated by rent-gap theory-based cellular automata combined with a residential migration decision model based on a multinomial logit model is built to project the current pattern of shrinkage in the case study area, and in order to compare various policy scenarios.
Jianping GU, Yasushi ASAMI
city shrinkage, logit model, cellular automata, policymaking